A new analysis suggests the global population could peak just below 9 billion people in 2050 then start falling. The new projection is significantly lower than several prominent population estimates, including those of the United Nations, which in November2022 assessed the world population at 8 billion people.
The researchers behind the new report go further to say that if the world takes a “Giant Leap” in investment in economic development, education and health then global population could peak at 8.5 billion people by the middle of the century.
The authors draw up two main scenarios for the demographic, social, economic and ecological development to 2100:
- Too Little Too Late
- Giant Leap
In the first scenario, characterised by business as usual, the researchers estimate global population could peak at 8.6 in 2050 before declining to 7 billion in 2100.
In the second scenario, five extraordinary turnarounds are implemented globally: ending poverty, addressing inequality, empowering women, making our food system sustainable and transitioning to clean energy. In this scenario, population peaks at 8.5 billion by around 2040 and declines to around 6 billion by the end of the century.
The new projections by researchers from the Earth4All initiative for the Global Challenges Foundation is published as a working paper:
People and Planet: 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries. (To download see resource-list.)
The authors are Per Espen Stoknes, Director of the Center for Sustainability and Energy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and Ben Callegari, Associate Professor at Kristiania University College.
The report from the Earth4All initiative to the Global Challenges Foundation has been produced in response to the Foundation’s research call in May 2021.
