Global population bomb may never go off

Category:

Report / Paper

Published 2023-03-27

A new study suggests from Earth4All suggests that the global population in the year 2050 could peak below 9 billion and then start declining. The projection is significantly lower than several prominent population estimates.

The researchers behind the new report go further to say that if the world takes a “Giant Leap” in investment in economic development, education and health then global population could peak at 8.5 billion people by the middle of the century.

The team also analysed the connection between population and exceeding planetary boundaries, which is linked to the carrying capacity of Earth. Contrary to public popular myths, the team found that global population size is not the prime driver of exceeding planetary boundaries such as climate change. Rather, it is extremely high material footprint levels among the world’s richest 10% that is destabilising the planet.

The new projections by researchers from the Earth4All initiative for the Global Challenges Foundation is published as a working paper. The report has been produced in response to Foundation’s research call in May 2021.

People and Planet: 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries.

People and Planet: 21st Century Sustainable Population Scenarios and Possible Living Standards Within Planetary Boundaries.

The authors are Per Espen Stoknes, Director of the Center for Sustainability and Energy at the BI Norwegian Business School, and Ben Callegari, Associate Professor at Kristiania University College.

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Global population could peak below 9 billion in 2050s

Global population could peak below 9 billion in 2050s

In November 2022, the world crossed a milestone of 8 billion people but new analysis suggests the global population could peak just below 9 billion people in 2050 then start falling.

Press release from Earth4All
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