A Year of Colliding Consequences – The Global Catastrophic Risks Report 2022

Ukraine war, nuclear risk, climate change, Covid intersect to create unprecedented ‘polycrisis’.

Global catastrophic risks have intensified at an unprecedented rate in 2022, intersecting and reinforcing each other with far-reaching consequences. 

The annual report, with the 2022-edition titled: A Year of Colliding Consequences, is the foundation’s review of major global risks that threaten at least ten per cent of humanity. This year’s report flags complex convergence of global threats. 

This report is released in the wake of the failure of the COP27 climate talks to agree strong measures to curb fossil fuel production, and as the ripple effects of the Ukraine war continue to be felt worldwide in terms of heightened nuclear risk, severe food and energy insecurity, surging inflation and poverty. 

The Global Challenges Foundation calls on the international community to urgently push forward new initiatives to understand and manage this complex convergence of global risks. 

Jens Orback, Executive Director of the Global Challenges Foundation: 

“This year of global risks and colliding consequences highlights the need for an urgent upgrade of international cooperation. We need better information on how global risks are reinforcing each other and better mechanisms to allow us to manage them in a more holistic way.” 

 “The crisis in Ukraine is compounding the severe impacts of climate change and the pandemic in many parts of the world, while slowing attempts to deal with a heating planet. Meanwhile, the destruction of our natural environment also heightens the risk of new pandemics.”

Orback highlights several proposed initiatives to better manage converging global risks including:

• A global cooperation of scientific institutes to study the mechanisms amplifying, accelerating and synchronising systemic risks, as proposed by among others Johan Rockström, GCF Board member and Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
• Proposals from the United Nations Secretary-General’s 2021 Our Common Agenda report such as an Emergency Platform that would be triggered by a major crisis such as the use of a nuclear weapon and coordinate a global response, and the revival of the UN’s Trusteeship Council, as a multi-stakeholder body to tackle emerging challenges and to act to preserve the global commons on behalf of future generations. 
• A tax on carbon emissions with the revenue going to those most affected by climate change. Both a global tax and national taxes at a minimum level would be positive pathways forward.

The risk of nuclear conflict is one that has intensified in 2022 with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For the Global Catastrophic Risks report, Dr Kennette Benedict of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists in Chicago writes that it is now more likely than ever that nuclear weapons will be used in either military actions, miscalculation or by accident than at any time since the beginning of the nuclear age.

“Only with a clear understanding of each of the global risks facing humanity can we move forward to rethink how we could better manage them,” says GCF’s Jens Orback. “And only with new kinds of global cooperation can we deal with the complex web of interlocking and reinforcing global risks to ensure a habitable, safe and peaceful future.”