Risk Indicator

How can you put low-probability risks in perspective? We believe that one way is to compare them to other, more everyday risks. It may not sound very alarming to say that there is a 0.5 percent probability that global temperature, at the current levels of greenhouse gas emissions, will rise by six degrees. But if we assume the same probability for aviation accidents, it would mean that instead of 30 such accidents per year, there would be more than 400 a day!

This is the Risk Indicator. You can use it to calculate and visualize the risk our planet is facing with regard to greenhouse gas emissions and global warming.

Choose the concentration of greenhouse gases in the “GHG Concentration” menu, and the average temperature rise in degrees Celsius in the “Increase in °C” menu. By selecting a type of risk in the “Other Risk” menu, you can compare the probability for climate change with other events, such as fatal flight accidents, and display them both on the meter below. You can base the calculation on different data sources using the  “Source Database” menu.

Under the header “EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITY”, you will see the calculated probability that the temperature increase will exceed the selected amount of degrees.

Under the header “OTHER RISK”, you will see the calculated probability of the risk you have selected for comparison (such as the risk of an airplane crash).